Romania: Barley crop and export prospects for 2018/19 season

31.05.2018

Traditionally, barley in Romania is a crop intended for export to third countries. In particular, the lion’s share of the commodity is supplied to Saudi Arabia (roughly 42-45% of total exports). As Saudi buyers sharply reduced purchases in MY 2016/17 and this crop’s inventories consequently rose, Romanian farmers prefer decreasing its planted acreage for a second straight season, reports UkrAgroConsult.

According to UkrAgroConsult’s estimates, barley plantings for the 2018 harvest shrank by 7% from the previous season and 12% below the five-season average. This will result to drop in barley crop in 2018.

In the 2018/19 season, Romania’s export potential is forecast at the five-year average level that is 10% less than expected this season and down 25% from the 2015/16 record.

The shipments are expected to lower not only because of a smaller crop but also due to unstable demand for this commodity from the top buyer – Saudi Arabia – over the past several seasons. According to USDA forecasts, Saudi Arabia will import as much barley in MY 2018/19 as in the current season (roughly 8 MMT) that is far below the 2015/16 record (down 3.2 MMT). 

In the new season Romania is poised to step up shipments to Asian countries. The key supplier of Asian countries – Australia – is experiencing drought conditions again. As Australian barley is expected to be expensive for a second straight season, Asian buyers become increasingly interested in Romanian offers.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain” by UkrAgroConsult.

Information on price behavior, tendencies and forecasts on grain market in the countries of Black Sea region is available to subscribers for “Online market review " by UkrAgroConsult.

 

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