Romania: lower sowing area will not allow gathering record high crop

06.07.2017

UkrAgroConsult increased slightly its estimate of Romanian wheat yield in 2017/18 MY, which is now almost in line with record high productivity, achieved last season (4.05 MT/ha).

New estimate of 4 MT/ha is based on recent favorable weather conditions in many producing regions of the country. Rains in May and June replenished soil moisture deficit, especially in the Southern and North-Eastern regions. Average daily temperatures were only slightly above average in these regions. Contrary to last year, excessive warmth and soil drought was seen mostly in the Western part of Romania. In addition to this, Romanian farmers steadily improve growing technologies, which benefits average yield.

Still, wheat crop forecast is lower compared to last year due to soil drought during sowing campaign in autumn 2016. Moreover, farmers were not satisfied with low wheat prices offered by traders and preferred to switch to more marginable crops. Thus, production will decrease for the first time after four consecutive years of steady growth, but will be the third largest for Romania.

Due to the lower crop potential in 2017/18 export potential will be lower by app. 2MMT compared to last season. Higher competition is expected from France due to wheat crop recovery as well from other countries of Black Sea region.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain & Oil” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.

 

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