Romania. Prospects of corn production and exports in 2018/19

08.06.2018

According to the May forecast of European Commission, in 2018 EU corn seeding area is going to increase year over year by 1.2% to 8490 Th ha compared to last year. Area is expected to rebound in Spain after severe drought in summer 2017 and higher seeding prospects are envisaged for Romania and Hungary, which export corn to the third countries. As for France, which is the top exporter of corn to the domestic market of EU, seeding area is going to remain stable due to less attractive domestic corn prices.

According to UkrAgroConsult estimates for the crop 2018, Romanian farmers increased corn seeding area. Though crop potential is limited by the fast evaporation of soil moisture stocks at the background of excessive air temperatures, noticed this spring in Romania.

According to National Meteorological Administration of Romania, moderate and severe soil drought is seen in the Eastern parts of the country, where precipitations amounted only 40%-60% of the norms over the last month. At the same time, South-Western parts received above normal amount of rains. 

Taking into account current unfavorable weather conditions, average yield is projected by 5% lower compared to 5-year average, so crop is projected to be lower than last year.

Due to lower crop potential, corn exports in 2018/19 will decrease. Rise in world export prices in the second half of current season and lower competition from South American, expected in the first half of 2018/19 MY creates good opportunities for Romania.

The country has a chance to win back its share, lost at the market of Egypt, lost this season to Brazil and Argentina.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.

 

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