Russia. Forecast for the 2019 grain crop

29.01.2019

Sych Maryna  grain market analyst at "UkrAgroConsult"

Russia has big plans for 2019. The country is going to expand its acreage of grains and pulses for the 2019 harvest to a 20-year high (up 2.8% from 2018).

As a reminder, Russian growers have seeded a 2.5% larger area to winter crops than planned: their plantings total 17.6 Ml ha, or 2.7% more than last year. In addition, the final figure on planting in Russia is usually higher than current ones.

This winter’s weather is quite favorable for winter grains. Air temperatures and precipitation rates are mostly above normal, with the depth of soil freezing being less than normal. In most of areas planted to winter crops, the snow height exceeds 20-30 cm. This includes higher precipitation rates in the south of the country compared with last year.

This thickness and persistence of snow cover will secure good moisture reserves for winter grains in early spring, when their growth will resume.

Based on an expected minimum rate of crop loss and a several-year trend average of wheat yield, the 2019 wheat crop in Russia may be high again. So, Russia will most likely retain its leading position in the global wheat market in 2019, reports UkrAgroConsult.

For 2019/20 season perspectives by crops please see full version of the article that available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain” by UkrAgroConsult.

Analytical report "Black Sea Grain" contains detailed information on the latest trends in grain exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior, crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea region.

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