Russia. Grain market on the verge of new records or problems?


The beginning of the new 2017/18 grain season in Russia has a déjà vu effect. As usually, in winter the market is very cautious when making any forecasts, because of possibly weather negative influence, which is very difficult to predict. But as harvesting began and new yields highs were achieved, all market participants started to raise their grain production estimates, as it was last year.

Wheat is certainly the key point. And the main analogy with last year is that average productivity keeps growing in the country (14% higher than last year, wheat gathered from nearly a half of the intended area).

As a reminder, wheat planted area for the 2017 crop reached it’s high since 2009 – 28 Ml ha. Moreover, winter losses were minimal over the past few years. All these factors give reasons to expect a bumper crop this year and a serious overproduction in the country.

Nevertheless, the peculiarities of the current season should be taken into account, UkrAgroConsult notes.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain & Oil” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.



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