Russia may export up to 52 mln tonnes of grain in 2018 agricultural season — expert


Russia may export up to 52 mln tonnes of grain in the 2018 agricultural season, including up to 40 mln tonnes of wheat which is a record figure, chief executive of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko told reporters during a conference call.

"There is a possibility that the volume of wheat exports, taking into account the illegal exports to Kazakhstan, that took place this year (up to half a million tonnes ) will total 40 million tonnes. This is, of course, a colossal record. Last year, for the first time in history we exported 27 mln tonnes (of wheat) and it seemed to be a record. This year wheat exports may reach 40 mln tonnes. As for all cereals, according to our estimates, exports may amount to 51-52 mln tonnes," Rylko said.

In late March, Russia’s Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev said his ministry forecasts grain exports in 2017-2018 agricultural year at of 52-53 mln tonnes.

Earlier, the Agriculture Ministry forecasted, export of grain in the amount of 45-47 mln tonnes. However, on March 16, 2018, Anatoly Kutsenko, head of the Department of Economics, Investments and Regulation of the Agro-Industrial Market at the Agriculture Ministry, said that Russia's export potential is 50-52 million tonnes. At the same time, the export of wheat will reach 36-37 million tonnes.

Rylko touched upon a rise in grain prices. If a week ago, export wheat price was $208 per tonnes, now it's $214-215, he said.

"I think that prices will unlikely to drop until the end of the season. They will rather grow gradually, because the ruble is unlikely to strengthen. It is difficult to predict but at least we see, not a shortage but the growing value of grain in the European territory of Russia, since the country is getting ready to export grain. We are exporting a huge amount of grain and by the end of the year the reserves will not be as huge as two months ago," Rylko noted.

As previously reported, grain exports from Russia in the 2016-2017 agricultural year amounted to 35.5 million tonnes, including 27.1 million tonnes of wheat. The growth in grain exports was due to a record grain harvest of 134.1 million tonnes in 2017. Thanks to this Russia can regain its status as the world's largest wheat supplier it had in the past.

In the current agricultural year, the harvest of grain in Russia is forecast at 110-115 mln tonnes.


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