Russia. Paradox in the barley market

14.12.2016

As UkrAgroConsult wrote before, the pace of Russian grain exports in 2016/17 falls short of market expectations. And most questions among market participants are raised by the current situation with barley.

Please note that in view of a barley crop increase the market estimated export availabilities to be on average 15 percent higher than last season. However, now they are increasingly inclined to believe that barley exports in the current season will not only fail to exceed last year’s level but will even fall to the lowest point since MY 2013/14, Marina Sych, grain market analyst of UkrAgroConsult notes.

So, according to tentative information, Russia exported some 1.7 MMT of barley for the five months of the current season. This is down 37% from last season and hits a five-year low.

According to UkrAgroConsult estimates, Russia will market at most 40 percent of its export availabilities of barley by the end of the first half of 2016/17 against the usual ratio of 70 percent.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly ag market report “Black Sea Grain & Oil” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.

 

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