Russia. Quite optimistic outlook for the new oilseed season

18.07.2017

The crop forecast, in particular that for oilseeds, which the article will concern, is a topical issue not only for growers but also for everyone directly or indirectly related to the market. Today we’ll discuss expectations for Russia’s sunseed, soybeans and rapeseed crops in 2017/18 season.

In general, with regard to oilseed sowing for the 2017 harvest, it should be noted that farmers ultimately seeded on average 5% larger areas than projected (according to current data), despite an initial lag in sunflower and soya planting. An opposite situation developed with spring rape: its planted acreage fell short by more than 2%.

June’s meteorological conditions unsettled farmers in almost all the regions as their crops were exposed to torrential rain, squalls, hail, snow, low temperatures in one regions and dryness with abnormal heat in others.

Therefore, the first bold statements by analysts about a new record in Russian sunflower plantings had to be adjusted downwards to last year’s level of 7.6 Ml ha and the projected yield had to be lowered to 1.44 MT/ha (the highest yield – 1.55 MT/ha – was registered in MY 2013/14).

As of now, the greatest concerns about sunflower plantings are heard regarding Central Russia and the Volga regions, where crops developed in harsh conditions because of low temperatures and abundant precipitation. These regions account for more than 60% of the country’s total sunflower acreage. Nonetheless, the situation was not critical as of early July and weather forecasts suggest that this oil crop will normally complete its development and ripening.

Expanding soya plantings is a strategic task for Russia. Certain success in its performance is seen in 2017/18 season. This particularly concerns the key growing region, i.e. the Far Eastern federal district, where this oilseed’s area was increased by more than 200 Th ha. In addition, the Central federal district expanded soya plantings by almost 190 Th ha.

Although rape planting was incomplete (861 Th ha was sown to this oilseed against the planned 880 Th ha), farmers have started rapeseed harvesting with intent to do this job on more than 1027 Th ha (a three-year high) owing to winter rape and its high winter survival rates. Consequently, with the five-year average yield of 1.18 MT/ha (the record one was reached in MY 2014/15 – 1.38 MT/ha), the crop can be expected at 1200-1220 KMT.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Vegoils +CIS” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.

Further prospects of the world oilseeds/vegoils market will be discussed at the V International Conference “Black Sea Oil Trade”, which will take place on September 19, 2017 in Hilton hotel, Kiev, Ukraine.

Annual International Conference “Black Sea Oil Trade” – is an effective platform, providing oilseed industry operators with vast networking opportunities, exclusive analytics of Ukrainian and Black Sea agri market, insights for development of the long term business strategies.

Conference participants are represented by producers and crushers of oilseeds, traders, enterprises for deep processing of vegetable oils, agriholdings, investment companies, banks, legal, shipping, brokerage, insurance, surveyor companies etc.

Early Bird registration rate is available! Market operators from 10 countries have already registered to take part. 

Follow the updates, Agenda and Speakers at the conference website.

 

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