Russia's grain harvest at 100-year high

23.10.2017

Russia has brought in the biggest harvest in the last 100 years; 132mn tonnes of grain has been brought in so far in 2017, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on October 19 as cited by Interfax. This already beats the previous estimate of 127mn tonnes and is well ahead of last year's bumper 120.7mn tonnes, and only just behind the Soviet all time high of 133mn tonnes set in the 70's. "The disastrous impact of communism on Russian agriculture is over," said Charlie Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital in a tweet last month.

All of the increase will be exported, which means Russia will retain its title of "biggest grain exporter in the world" again this year. Grain exports are expected to grow 25% y/y - to 45mn tonnes in 2017 from 36mn tonnes in 2016 amid a 5% y/y decline in global wheatprices as of today.  Russia is expected to earn some $20bn on grainexports this year, more than it will earn from arms exports and a third of what it earns from oil exports at the moment. In the meantime last week on October 13 President Vladimir Putin urged the relevant ministries to take measures against dropping prices amid oversupply of grains, which will not be exported.  "The grain, whatever [the region] where it is produced, should be profitable on both internal and external markets," Putin said.


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