South America and its new corn crop: a price apocalypse is coming!


The current corn export season has both benefits and drawbacks for Ukraine. So, for instance, exports to the EU are somewhat slower than last year, but Ukrainian traders are gaining ground in other markets, such as Egypt, South Korea, Iran and South Africa. They manage to realize Ukraine’s high export potential due to easing competition from Brazil in the first half of 2016/17 in view of shrinking Brazilian inventories of 2016-crop, UkrAgroConsult notes.

Moreover, in the seven months of the current season (September-March), Ukraine outpaces by far Brazil in terms of overall export shipments. So, in the period under review, Brazil slashed corn exports actually four times to 8.16 MMT. Ukraine outstrips last year: 13.5 MMT against 12.2 MMT in September-March a year ago.

At the same time, the situation may change fundamentally in June, when Brazil and Argentina will bring their new corn crop to the market.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain & Oil”.




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