"South-East Asia and Africa – the key hope of grain producers", - Wayne Gordon, UBS, Singapore (video)
African and South-East Asian countries push up demand in international grain markets, informed Wayne Gordon, Executive Director on Commodities, Rates and FX, UBS (Singapore), in his presentation at the XIV International Conference “Black Sea Grain: Wind of Change”.”
According to Wayne Gordon, demand is generated primarily by the planet’s population growth, changes in the demographic structure (due to an expanding share of young population in Africa) and rising incomes of African and South-East Asian consumers.
The expert outlined a few more trends in global consumption, including the following:
- growing consumption of animal products in high-income countries,
- increasing wheat consumption in developing countries (India) at the expense of ousted rice,
- consumption of staple cereals is on the rise in Indonesia and Africa.
Grain shortage in Africa aggravates rapidly due to increasing demand. However, the lack of land suitable for an equally rapid expansion of production makes imports the only solution to the food problem, the speaker stressed.
Another trend is a remarkable rise in Indian imports of vegoils, mostly palm oil.
Also, the speaker predicted Ukraine to boost grain and oilseed exports in the coming decade: a gain in yields, infrastructure improvement and growing investments will lead to at least a 6 MMT rise in exports. At the same time, according to him, investments in logistics and port infrastructure are needed to realize the production potential.
XIV International Conference “Black Sea Grain: Wind of Change” took place on April 5-6, 2017 in Kiev, Ukraine, and brought together over 700 agribusiness operators from 55 countries worldwide. Organizer – consulting agency UkrAgroConsult.