Soy complex slips as USDA keeps domestic yield estimate steady

13.12.2017

Soybean-related futures on CBOT slipped Tuesday after the US Department of Agriculture released data projecting soybean yields were holding steady for the country's 2017-18 crop.

In its latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand and Estimate report, the USDA maintained its estimated yield of 49.5 bushels/harvested acre.

Within minutes of the report's release, CBOT front-month soybean futures had fallen to $9.8140/bushel, a 10-cent decrease compared with Monday's settle.

The USDA's soybean production forecast was likewise unchanged at 4.425 billion bushels. But it raised its estimated ending stocks forecast by 20 million bushels to 445 million bushels.

It held forecasts for area planted and harvested steady at 90.2 million acres and 89.5 million acres, respectively.

USDA's total supply expectation was unchanged at 4.752 billion bushels.

Soybean export projections decreased 25 million bushels to 2.225 billion bushels, while import projections were unchanged at 25 million bushels.

USDA boosted its forecast for soybean oil usage for biodiesel production by 5 million lb to 7.5 billion lb.

The midpoint of the projected season-average price range for soybeans was unchanged at $9.30/bushel, as the USDA projected the range would be $8.45-$10.15/bushel. Its soybean oil price forecast was unchanged at 32.5-36.5 cents/lb.

The USDA forecast for soybean oil ending stocks was unchanged at 1.616 billion lb.

The projection for soybean oil production also was unchanged at 22.505 billion lb.

Projected soybean oil beginning stocks also remained unchanged at 1.711 billion lb.

The USDA's estimate for total soybean oil use was flat at 22.9 billion lb, while its domestic consumption forecast increased 200 million lb to 21 billion lb.


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