Soybean prices tumble on huge US sowings

03.04.2017

Soybean futures tumbled, after much-awaited US sowing and stocks data showed both figures even bigger than expected.

Data from the US Department of Agriculture showed US soybean planting intentions at a massive 89.5m acres, beating average analyst expectations of 88.2m acres, and above even the largest forecasts.

US grain sowings, (change on market forecast), and from last year, in acres

Corn                       90.0m, (-949,000), -4.0m

Beans                     89.5m, (1.3m), 6.1m

Winter wheat        32.7m, (-150,000), -3.5m

Spring wheat         11.3m, (-58,000), -600,000

Durum                    2.0m, (-115,000), -412,000

 Sources: USDA, Reuters

"This is a big number and keeps us wanting to hedge rallies," said Mike Zuzolo, at Global Commodity Analytics.

Terry Reilly, at Futures International, said the data was "bearish all around except for new-crop corn, spring wheat and durum wheat".

Soybeans fall against corn

But Darrell Holaday, at Country Futures, noted that "one of the functions of the intentions report is to let the market react and possibly shift acreage".

With new crop soybean futures falling sharply against corn in recent weeks, at least some farmers may be rethinking their planting plans, leading them to switch acres away from the oilseed.

May soybean futures were down 1.7% in late deals, to $8.46 Ѕ a bushel.

Massive stocks all round

US grain stocks, (change on market forecast), and from last year, in bushels

Corn            8.616bn, (82m), 794m

Beans          1.735bn, (51m), 204m

Wheat         1.655bn, (28m), 283m

Sources: USDA, Reuters

The USDA saw soybean stocks at 1.74bn bushels, beating average analyst expectations of 1.68bn bushels.

Stocks numbers for corn and wheat were also big.

 "Quarterly stocks were all above average estimates for bearish tone on market," said Benson Quinn Commodities.

Corn finds support

Still there was some scepticism on the forecast of corn stocks.

I simply don't buy the corn number—it's too high given the hogs/pigs report, our export pace, and the ethanol crush," said Mr Zuzolo.

And corn sowings were a bit lower than expected, adding extra support to corn futures.

May corn futures were up 1.9%, at $3.64 ј a bushel.


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