Soybean production to hit new record next year, IGC says


Global cereal production will fall only slightly next season, with massive stocks keeping supply heavy, while soybean output is expected to hit new record highs, the International Grain Council said.

In its first full forecast for 2017-18 grain production, the IGC saw soybean production hitting record levels thanks to rising sowings.

"Preliminary projections for 2017-18 point to another bumper outturn on anticipated area gains in many growers," the IGC said.

IGC world production and stocks estimates, in tonnes

                              2016-17       2017-18


  production             754m           735m

  end stocks             513m           484m


  production             1.053bn       1.044bn

  end stocks             225m           205m


  production             341m           345m

  end stocks             38m             35m

Firm demand could still shrink stocks

But despite the massive supply, the IGC warned that "with uptake expected to ascend on firm demand for soybean products from feed and food sectors, carryovers could contract, including a drop in the major exporters".

Soybean trade is predicted to rise to 145m tonnes, "primarily on bigger shipments to Far East Asia".

The good progress of the South American crop prompted the IGC to lift its forecast of 2016-17 world soybean production by some 5m tonnes, to 341m tonnes.

"With consumption little changed from before, aggregate end-season inventories are raised by 3m tonnes, to 38m, with the adjustment mostly due to the major exporters," the IGC said.

Cereal production to fall, barely

The IGC saw cereal production falling by some 56m tonnes, with wheat production down some 19m tonnes, and corn production down some 29m tonnes.

But the IGC said "he high level of opening stocks is seen almost compensating for the decline, with only a 1% drop in total supply anticipated".

"With a rise in consumption, a contraction in carryover stocks is projected, but still the second biggest on record," the IGC said.


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