Stagnant supply to push India’s vegetable oil imports

26.06.2018

India is the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer and primarily imports palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. More than 70% of India’s edible oil demand is met from imports.

India’s vegetable oil imports will rise to 25 million tonne in 2030 from 15.5 million tonne in 2017 due to increasing demand and stagnant supply, says a report by Rabobank.

India is the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer and primarily imports palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. More than 70% of India’s edible oil demand is met from imports.

Rabobank estimates Indian vegetable oil demand to grow significantly with a CAGR of 3% to exceed 34 million tonne by 2030, with the per capita consumption pegged at 24 kg in 2030, due to rising disposable income and population growth.

India’s vegetable oil consumption has grown at a 5% CAGR over the past decade to reach 23.1 million tonne in 2017 as compared to 13.5 million tonne in 2007.

“Domestic oil seed production growth can’t keep up with rising demand” said Rohit Kumar Dhanda, analyst — Grains & Oilseeds. “Rising demand and stagnant domestic vegetable oil supply ,which has been range bound between 6.5 million tonne and 8.5 million tonne in the past decade ,will push India’s vegetable oil imports to over 25 million tonne by 2030,” he said.

The RaboResearch report “The Future of India’s Edible Oil Industry: How Will India’s Vegetable Oil Demand Shape Up by 2030?” states that India accounts for 4% of global vegetable oil production, 12% of global consumption and 21% of global traded volumes.

Driven by low domestic supplies, palm oil, soy oil, and sunflower oil will continue to represent more than 98% of total vegetable oil imports. Palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will continue to take the lion’s share at 60 % of total imports in 2030, followed by South American soy oil taking a 24% share and sunflower oil from the Black Sea Region taking a 14% market share, respectively.

India produces nine types of oil seeds but the oil seed production has been low at a CAGR of 1% since 2010 to touch 38 million tonne in 2017 from 33 million tonne. Poor soil conditions and lower farm inputs has meant low yields when compared to the global averages. Less than 25% of India’s oil seed acreage is irrigated, says the report.

Palm oil imports continue to grow at a CAGR of 10% from 3.2 million tonne in 2007 to 9.3 million tonne in 2017. Domestic palm oil production in 2017 stood at 2,30,000 tonne , which is just over 2% of India’s palm oil consumption.


financialexpress.com

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