Sunflower planted area still underestimated in Ukraine

11.08.2016

Yulia Garkavenkois an oilseed and vegoil market leading expert of "UkrAgroConsult"

The State Statistics Committee of Ukraine greatly surprised or even shocked the market by publishing the final data on oilseeds planted area, particularly that of sunflower - 5.9 Mln ha. It’s not that the market did not expect such a large sunflower acreage in 2016, but on the contrary. Back in December 2015 UkrAgroConsult estimated that sunflower planted area in Ukraine would exceed 6 Mln ha.

But the fact that such a large area would be officially announced was probably expected by no one. It means that officially it was admitted that sunflower area was almost two times as large as the scientifically grounded norm.

It’s no secret that estimates of sunflower seed production (planted area, yield, harvest) always had to be revised upwards. To calculate a realistic sunflower seed/oil supply and demand balance, the planted area at 5.5-5.6 Mln ha was usually considered depending of the season, while the official acreage hardly reached 5 Mln ha.

Can we say now that in 2016 we will not need to reappraise the acreage and production of sunflower seed? Will sunflower market be transparent and clear, such as rapeseed or soybean one? This would facilitate work of all oilseeds market operators.

But taking into account many-year experience, UkrAgroConsult still believes that the 5.9 Mln ha of sunflower planted area is not a final figure, and unfortunately we cannot do without further reappraisal.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Vegoils & CIS” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.

 

 

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