The Maize and Wheat Flour Market in Kenya, Forecast to 2020


Growing B2B Demand for Wheat Flour Calls for Business Model Changes Involving Vertical Integration and Local Sourcing Strategies

The Kenyan maize and wheat flour market will show strong growth (CAGR of 7.3%) over the next 5 years as changing consumer preferences for wheat flour, improving retail accessibility, and increasing market sophistication drive demand. Worth $738.1 million in 2015, the Kenyan wheat flour market is expected to reach $1.15 billion by 2020 at a CAGR of 9.2%, accounting for 47.2% of the market by 2020. In comparison, the commercial maize flour market is expected to increase from $315.8 million in 2015 to $444.0 million by 2020 at a CAGR of 7.1%, while posho maize flour will increase from $658.2 million in 2015 to $840.2 million by 2020 at a CAGR of 5.0%.

Both the wheat and commercial maize flour markets in Kenya are very competitive, dominated by Tier I participants. The commercial maize flour market has an additional segment to compete with besides wheat flour-posho flour. Posho millers provide inferior-quality flour at cheaper prices for price-sensitive consumers, and comprise the bulk of the maize flour market in Kenya.

Tier I market competitors involved in both wheat and commercial maize milling include Mombasa Maize Millers (MMM), Diamond Lalji Group (DLG), Pembe-Kitui, and Unga Group Limited. TSS Grain Millers (wheat milling), Uzuri Food Limited (wheat milling), and Alpha Grain Millers (maize milling) conclude the list of Tier I competitors. Tier II and Tier III competitors are also mentioned, as well as the estimated milling capacities of Tier I, II, and III participants. Five key growth opportunities as well as critical success factors are highlighted.


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