Total cereal stocks to remain high in 2017/18


• Following a 1.4 percent upward adjustment since last month, FAO’s forecast of world cereal stocks ending in 2018 points to global inventories nearly matching their openings level.

• Global wheat stocks (ending in 2018) are set to expand by 3.3 percent to a new high of 247.6 million tonnes. Higher inventories in China and, to a lesser extent, the EU, Morocco and the Russian Federation account for most of the year-on-year increase.

• FAO’s forecast of total coarse grain stocks (ending in 2018) has been raised by 3.2 percent since last month’s report to nearly 271 million tonnes, following upward adjustments to historical maize inventory estimates for China. Despite the revision, China is seen driving a 2.9 percent drawdown of world coarse grain reserves, cutting the size of its stockpiles by a sharp 20.5 million tonnes.

• Global rice inventories (ending 2018) are forecast to remain close to their opening levels at 171 million tonnes. Drawdowns in some of the major exporters, namely the United States and Thailand, are expected to be largely compensated by accumulations elsewhere, especially in China.


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