U.S. wheat and corn carryover climbs from March

12.04.2018

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projected U.S. 2018 carryover of wheat and corn higher but soybean carryover lower from March forecasts, while 2017-18 export projections for all three commodities were left unchanged from a month earlier.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2018, was forecast at 1.064 billion bushels, up 30 million bushels, or 3%, from 1.034 billion bushels projected in March, but down 117 million bushels, or 10%, from 1.181 billion bushels in 2017.

The 2018 wheat carryover was above the average trade expectation of 1.040 billion bushels but within the range of analysts’ estimates.

The USDA attributed the increase entirely to a like decrease in feed and residual use of wheat, forecast at 70 million bushels in April’s report, as implied in the March 29 Grain Stocks report, which also said record U.S. March 1 corn stocks would continue to displace wheat for feed use during the 2017-18 marketing year.

Hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2018, was projected at 545 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from March but down 44 million bushels from 589 million bushels in 2017. Soft red winter carryover was projected at 225 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from March but up 10 million bushels from 215 million bushels last year. Hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 190 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from March but down 45 million bushels from 235 million bushels in 2017. White wheat carryover was projected at 66 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from March and down 39 million bushels from 2017. Durum carryover was forecast at 38 million bushels, up 3 million bushels from March and up 2 million bushels from 2017.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, was projected at 2.182 billion bushels, up 55 million bushels, or 2.6%, from March but down 111 million bushels, or 5%, from 2.293 billion bushels estimated on Sept. 1, 2017. The USDA 2018 projection was slightly below the trade average forecast of 2.192 billion bushels.

Increased corn carryover was attributed to lower feed and residual use and slightly lower food, seed and industrial use. Feed and residual use in 2017-18 was projected at 5.500 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 0.9%, from March but up 28 million bushels from 2016-17. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 7.040 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels from March but up 157 million bushels, or 2.3%, from a year earlier. Use of corn for ethanol was unchanged from March at 5.575 billion bushels.

Projected soybean carryover in the United States decreased from March due to increased projections for soybean crush offsetting lower seed and residual use. Higher soybean meal prices have been supported crush margins, the USDA said.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, was projected at 550 million bushels, down 5 million bushels, or 0.9%, from 555 million bushels projected in March but up 248 million bushels, or 82%, from 302 million bushels estimated on Sept. 1, 2017. The USDA 2018 projection was below the trade average forecast near 570 million bushels.

Soybean crushings in 2017-18 were forecast at a record 1.970 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels, or 0.5%, from March and up 69 million bushels, or 4%, from 2016-17. Seed use was projected at 103 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from March and down 2 million bushels from 2016-17. Residual use was projected at 30 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from March and down 4 million bushels from 2016-17.

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The USDA projected 2017-18 global ending stocks of wheat at 271.22 million tonnes, compared with 268.89 million tonnes projected in March and 254.60 million tonnes estimated for 2016-17.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 197.78 million tonnes for 2017-18 compared with 199.17 million tonnes projected in March and 230.90 million tonnes in 2016-17.

World soybean ending stocks for 2017-18 were projected at 90.80 million tonnes compared with 94.40 million tonnes in March and 96.72 million tonnes in 2016-17.

World soybean production for 2017-18 was projected at 334.81 million tonnes compared with 340.86 million tonnes in March and 350.76 million tonnes in 2016-17, largely due to Argentine soybean production, which fell 7 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes from March and compared with 57.8 million tonnes in 2016-17. That was partially offset by a 2-million-tonne increase over March for projected Brazilian soybean production at a record 115 million tonnes.

Drought in Argentina has slashed soybean production severely. The world’s No. 3 soybean exporter and top supplier of soybean meal and soybean oil this week bought 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans, according to the USDA’s 24-hour reporting service. It was Argentina’s largest purchase of U.S. soybeans since December 1997, according to trade reports.


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