UkrAgroConsult about winterkill forecasts in Ukraine and Russia

04.01.2018

UkrAgroConsult was questioned a lot how to forecast possible winter wheat losses in Ukraine and Russia if frosts come within the next 2-3 weeks. We have analyzed some data and decided to share with you our suggestions.

If snow cover is absent or is very thin, frosts under minus 9 could damage critically winter rapeseed and frosts under minus 15 could damage critically winter wheat. Meanwhile, within next two weeks, night frosts are forecasted not lower than 7 degrees below zero. UkrAgroConsult considers winterkill risks as insignificant if the weather forecasts are true.

Winterkill risks for longer periods will be estimated after new weather forecasts are available.

According to UkrAgroConsult’s data, similar weather conditions were in December 2015 with average monthly temperature being at +1.9 degree (December 2017 temperature was +1 degree). The 2016 wheat crop (96-97% of the wheat crop is winter wheat) was high at 26.1 MMT, with wheat yield being at a record high level of 4.21 MT/ha.

 

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