Ukraine. Basic wheat supply and demand balance in season 2017/18

12.10.2016

According to the Agriculture Ministry, wheat planted area for the 2017 crop will remain at the previous year's level – 6198 Th ha, reports UkrAgroConsult. As a reminder, last year winter wheat acreage was significantly smaller than many-year average, which is nearly 6700 Th ha.

Given the last year's considerable area reduction, it would be logical to expect at least partial recovery of the acreage, but for weather obstacles. Like last year, wheat sowing period was accompanied by drought.

The first UkrAgroConsult’s estimate is based on a supposition that wheat planted area will remain at last year's level of 6.3-6.4 Mln ha, as well as winter losses.

UkrAgroConsult expects that after a significant reduction in 2015, population decrease in Ukraine has slowed down considerably. We believe that food consumption of wheat is likely to remain relatively stable in the coming season. A slight increase in processing and further flour and groats export is also possible.

Meanwhile, feed consumption may decrease due to continuing reduction of livestock and poultry inventory.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain & Oil” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.

 

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