Ukraine. Crop-2017: acreage allocation outlook

05.01.2017

Rye. Rye acreage expanded for the first time in last five years. Rising domestic rye prices due to short supply as well as arrivals of imported grain and flour stimulated some growth of planted area. This increase is slight but it nevertheless may appear sufficient to ease the rye market tightness in MY 2017/18, UkrAgroConsult notes.

Rye has emerged on 95% of its planted area but roughly 15 Th ha is in weak, sparse condition. The crop will approximate 410-430 KMT.

Rapeseed. The 2016 drop in rapeseed production both in Ukraine (down 0.6 MMT) and the world (down 1.3 MMT) triggered a rise in this commodity’s price. Consequently, rapeseed became more expensive than sunseed for the first time in many years. The upward trend featured the first half of this season 2016/17 and high price secured good margin of rapeseed growing. The latter was the main driver of rape acreage expansion. According to the State Statistics Service, winter rape for the 2017 harvest was sown on an area of 899 Th ha (up 244 Th ha or 37% year-on-year). This was the first increase in four years.

Out of the planted 899 Th ha, rape has emerged on 833 Th ha (92.9%). Crop condition is assessed as generally good. According to the baseline scenario, the harvest of winter rapeseed will amount to 1.76 MMT in case of its average yield. We do not expect any considerable enlargement of spring rape crops – they will most likely remain at 50-60 Th ha. The overall output of winter and spring rapeseed is predicted up 54%.

More detailed information about other grain and oilseeds crops is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain & Oil” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.

 

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