Ukraine. Forecast for the 2019/20 crop of oilseeds

15.01.2019

Svetlana Kupreeva oilseed and vegoil market analyst at "UkrAgroConsult"

At the beginning of the new calendar year, UkrAgroConsult, already traditionally, publishes its first forecasts for the next season. The main question also sounds traditionally: what will farmers sow for the 2019/20 harvest?

UkrAgroConsult estimates that the planted area of oilseeds for the 2019 harvest will change insignificantly. At the same time, more substantial changes are expected in the cropping pattern due to the current 2018/19 trends.

According to preliminary estimates, rapeseed will yield good results in the 2018/19 season. Taking into account persistent strong interest from the key importer of this oilseed – the EU – and favorable domestic prices (rapeseed has been more expensive than sunflower seed throughout this season, with the spread reaching UAH 3,000/MT in some periods), rapeseed margin will remain high.

In support of this, the planted area of winter rape, according to UkrAgroConsult’s estimates, expanded.  The planting season featured favorable weather conditions, completion of the sowing works mostly within the optimum timeframe, replenishment of soil moisture in the crop development period and stable air temperatures. Consequently, rape plants were able to enter the winter in their best condition in five years. If the optimistic wintering scenario comes true, Ukraine may receive good rapeseed crop next season.

Forecasts for MY 2019/20 soybean and sunflower are available in the full version of the article in the weekly market report “Black Sea Vegoils” by UkrAgroConsult.

Analytical report "Black Sea Vegoils" contains detailed analysis of the latest trends in oilseeds/vegoils/meals exports, palm oil imports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop as well as crop conditions and progress in planting/harvesting in the countries of Black Sea Region.

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