Ukraine. Growth of sunoil prices inevitable due to a crop shortfall

11.10.2017

Sunseed requires close attention of all market participants in the new 2017/18 season. The question about the sunflower acreage size traditionally arose back in the spring during the planting season. As ever, analysts had to add to official data in their estimates. So, the statistical authorities reported 5.943 Ml ha seeded to sunflower in 2017. UkrAgroConsult estimates that, contrary to initial forecasts, sunflower planted acreage was not reduced – it remained at last year’s level of 6.4 Ml ha.

The yield shortfall is becoming a more substantial problem for all market participants this year. The fact that the starting yield was down 35% year-on-year but this gap narrowed to 12% by October cannot prevent a sunseed shortage in Ukraine’s market and makes it necessary to cut forecasts.

Taking into account the current situation, UkrAgroConsult expects sunseed production to shrink along with a decline in sunoil production.

Consequently, the sunoil export potential is to fall that will support prices both for sunseed and sunoil.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Vegoils +CIS and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.

 

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