Ukraine leaves Asian wheat markets

07.03.2017

According to February estimates of Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), wheat production is estimated to have exceeded the record forecast in the December report.  Farmers have gathered 11 MMT more wheat (35.1 MMT, or +45% y/y) than in 2015/16 and have essential export surplus. Given the fact that key wheat export markets of Australia lay in the domain of Asia, Black sea countries, especially Ukraine, as well as USA and Argentina are currently focused on export success of Australian traders.

Thus, realizing the looming record wheat supplies Australian traders began to lower export price in the first half of 2016/17 and steep decrease followed in November for the closest deliveries.  Adding to beneficial freight rates for Australian wheat in the Asian destinations, lower FOB price made it quite competitive to the other origins. So, January wheat shipments turned out to be record high for Australia reaching 2554.3 KMT (+68% to January 2016), which is only the beginning, reports UkrAgroConsult.

What will it mean for Ukraine?

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УкрАгроКонсалт

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