Ukraine. Soybean market expecting record crushing

11.09.2018

Recently, soybeans have repeatedly become the topic number one in the media, suggesting analysts to revise their forecasts for the new 2018/19 season. This was caused by innovations in the taxation of soybean exports from Ukraine, specifically abolition of VAT refunds. In this connection, we all witnessed a long-drawn process of confrontation, achieving an agreement and making a compromise decision on this matter, and the market was in a state of uncertainty all this time.

Eventually, ahead of the new season, President Poroshenko signed into law Bill No.7403-d stipulating that soybean and rapeseed export VAT will no more be refunded, except for growers supplying these commodities abroad on their own. The new regulation with respect to soybeans comes into force from September 1, 2018. This implies that the new marketing year will follow a new scenario. Time will show whether it will be optimistic for all market players, but it can be safely stated already now that soybean crushing will increase considerably.

What is the potential of the new 2018/19 season? UkrAgroConsult expects Ukraine to harvest at least 4 MMT of soybeans in 2018. This will happen in conditions of a 12% drop in their planted area. However, this summer’s weather conditions give hope for some offset at the expense of higher yields. The first statistical data on harvest progress show their rise by 39.5% against last year.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Vegoils” by UkrAgroConsult.

Further prospects of the Black Sea oilseeds/vegoils market will be discussed at the VI International Conference “Black Sea Oil Trade”, which will take place on September 20, 2018 in Hilton hotel, Kiev, Ukraine.

 

UkrAgroConsult

 

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