Ukraine squeezing out competitors in the Asian wheat market


According to USDA estimates, global wheat exports will increase 4.34 MMT in 2016/17 season, to a volume of 176.83 MMT. Taking into account that the current pace of world wheat exports is indeed faster than last year and wheat price is at a multi-year low, this forecast is quite realistic. The IGC reports that overall exports from major wheat supplier countries totaled 54.33 MMT in the first four months of 2016/17 season (July-October) that is up 4.45 MMT from last season. At the same time, the key sellers continue competing in outlet markets of Asia, Africa and the Near East, Olena Hesova, analyst of UkrAgroConsult, notes.

In July-October, Ukrainian shipments were up at 8.4 MMT against 7.7 MMT in the same period in 2015/16 season. At the expense of decreased export shares of Australia and Canada, substantial growth was achieved in the markets of Thailand (1293 KMT against 1111 KMT), Bangladesh (933 KMT against 428 KMT), Indonesia (943.2 KMT against 625 KMT). Besides, at the expense of EU countries, Ukraine managed to step up supplies to African markets, in particular to Morocco (510 KMT against 189 KMT) and Algeria (126 KMT against 106 KMT). This somewhat offset a drop in exports to Egypt (784 KMT against 903 KMT). With regard to the market of India, Ukraine will have to withstand serious competition from Australia in the latter half of the season, after the country completes harvesting its bumper wheat crop.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain & Oil” and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.



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