USDA boosts projections for global, US 2016-17 year-ending corn stocks

10.11.2016

The US Department of Agriculture said Wednesday it expected worldwide corn stocks at the end of the 2016-17 marketing year, which began September 1, would be 218.19 million mt, 1.38 million mt above its estimate in October.

A source said the report was bearish as the market had expected the global corn stocks at the end of the marketing year figure to be in a range of 214 million to 224.90 million mt, with an average estimate of 216.94 million mt.

The USDA also projected US stocks at the end of the 2016-17 marketing year would be 2.403 billion bushels (61.039 million mt), up 83 million bushels from its October estimate.

The market had expected the US stocks forecast for the end of the marketing year figure to be 2.30 billion bushels.

The agency's forecast of US feed and residual use was unchanged at 5.65 billion bushels. Its expectations for US exports were also unchanged at 2.225 billion bushels.

Of that total US 2016-17 corn use forecast, 36.27% was expected to be used for production of ethanol and byproducts, while 15.22% was predicted to be exported.

The agency's midpoint season-average price for the 2016-17 marketing year was increased to $3.30/bushel from $3.25/bushel in October. USDA said the rise in price was based on higher-than-expected observed early-season prices.

For the 2016-17 marketing year, the agency's forecast for US production was 15.226 billion bushels, with a yield of 175.3 bushels/harvested acre, compared with October's forecast of 15.057 billion bushels with a yield of 173.4 bushel/harvested acre. If realized, this would be the highest US yield and production on record.

The market was expecting an average estimate of 173 bushels/harvest acre.

USDA said it expects year-ending stocks of corn produced in the US for the 2015-16 marketing year -- old crop -- to total 1.738 billion bushels, unchanged from its October estimate.


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