USDA forecasts 2018 wheat carryover at 914 million bushels

11.05.2017

In its initial wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for 2017-18, the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 10 projected the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2018, at 914 million bushels, down 245 million bushels, or 21%, from an upwardly revised 1.159 billion bushels as the forecast for the current year.

The USDA forecast all-wheat production in 2017 at 1.820 billion bushels, down 490 million bushels, or 21%, from 2.310 billion bushels in 2016. The USDA commented, “The year-to-year decline is due to a sharp reduction in planted area and projected lower yields. The all-wheat yield is projected at 47.2 bushels per acre, down 10% from last year’s record.”

In forecasting 2017 all-wheat production, the USDA considered its initial survey-based winter wheat production forecast for 2017 at 1.246 billion bushels and a combined spring wheat and durum production forecast of 574 million bushels, based on spring wheat and durum planted area forecasts as indicated in the Prospective Plantings report issued at the end of March, average abandonment and trendline yields. The USDA noted the combined spring wheat and durum production for 2017 was projected to decline 10% from 2016.

The USDA forecast wheat imports in 2017-18 at 125 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from the current year.

The total 2017-18 wheat supply was forecast at 3.105 billion bushels, down 295 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.400 billion bushels in 2016-17.

US wheat ending stocks
 
Wheat disappearance in 2017-18 was forecast at 2.191 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from 2.241 billion bushels as the forecast for 2016-17.

Food use of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at 955 million bushels, the same as the forecast for the current year. Seed use of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at 66 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from 2016-17. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at 170 million bushels, down 20 million from the forecast for 2016-17.

The USDA forecast 2017-18 wheat exports at 1 billion bushels, down from 1.035 billion bushels as the forecast for the current year.

The average farm price of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at $3.85@4.65 a bushel compared with $3.90 a bushel as the estimate for 2016-17.

The USDA will issue its first wheat supply-and-demand forecasts by class in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand report.


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