USDA increased global and US corn ending stock projection

15.08.2016

The US Department of Agriculture Friday said worldwide corn stocks at the end of the 2016-17 marketing year would be 220.8 million mt, 12.41 million mt higher from its estimate in July.

The market was expecting a range of 201.32 million-228.71 million mt, an average of 212.69 million mt.

USDA expects ending stocks of corn produced in the US for the 2015-16 marketing year -- old crop -- to total 1.706 billion bushels, 5 million bushels higher from its July estimate. The ending stocks for 2016-17 marketing year -- new crop -- were projected at 2.409 billion bushels, 328 million bushels higher than its July estimate. For the 2016-17 marketing year, the market was expecting ending stocks in a range of 1.967 billion-2.653 billion bushels, an average of 2.255 million bushels.

For the US, feed and residual use rose 175 million bushels, with lower expected prices, and exports were projected 125 billion bushels higher, reflecting the US corn competitiveness on the world corn market.

Of total US 2016-17 corn use, 36.37% is estimated to be used for production of ethanol and byproducts, while 15% is estimated to be used for exports.

The midpoint season-average price for the 2015-16 marketing year was reduced to $3.60/bushel from $3.65/bu in July. The midpoint season-average price for the 2016-17 marketing year was reduced to $3.15/bushel from $3.40/bu in July.

For the 2016-17 marketing year, the agency's forecast for US production was at 15.153 billion bushels, with a yield of 175.1 bushels/harvested acre, both increased from July production forecast of 14.540 billion bushels production with a yield of 168.0 bushels/harvested acre. For 2016-17 yields the market was expecting a range of 168.6-175.0 bushels/harvested acre, an average of 170.6 bushels/harvested acre. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States.

The 2016-17 marketing year ending stocks, if realized, would be the highest since 1987-88.

The forecast for 2016-17 US area planted remained at 94.1 million acres, and the expected area harvested was also unchanged at 86.6 million acres.


platts

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