USDA increased its forecast for corn production in Ukraine

14.12.2018

On Tuesday, December 11, the USDA published another monthly forecast for grain production and exports. Following UkrAgroConsult’s expectations, the estimate for 2018/19 corn production in Ukraine was raised by 1.5 MMT against November’s forecast, to 35 MMT. In turn, the forecast for corn exports from Ukraine was also increased, to 28 MMT (up 1 MMT), reports UkrAgroConsult.

In addition, USDA experts revised their forecast for Russia’s 2018/19 wheat crop. The wheat production estimate was raised by 1.5 MMT, to 36.5 MMT, that is somewhat above our expectations. 

Altogether, at the expense of Ukrainian corn and Russian wheat, December’s USDA estimate for Black Sea grain production is up 0.8% month-over-month at 185.4 MMT, while the forecast for exports is up 2.5% at 103.7 MMT.

USDA: Estimates for Black Sea grain production and exports in 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons, MMT (December)

 

Country

Wheat

Corn

Barley

Production

Export

Production

Export

Production

Export

18/19

17/18

18/19

17/18

18/19

17/18

18/19

17/18

18/19

17/18

18/19

17/18

Ukraine

25.0

27.0

16.5

17.8

35.0

24.1

28.0

18.5

7.6

8.7

4.5

4.3

Russia

70.0

85.0

36.5

41.4

11.3

13.2

3.0

5.5

16.5

20.2

4.7

5.9

Kazakhstan

15.0

14.8

8.5

9.0

0.850

0.785

0.050

0.050

4.2

3.3

2.0

1.40

More detailed information on the latest trends in grain exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior, crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers for weekly market report "Black Sea Grain" by UkrAgroConsult.

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