USDA lowers wheat carryover forecast

13.03.2017

The USDA forecast 2016-17 world wheat ending stocks at a record 249.94 million tonnes.
 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on March 9 lowered its forecast for the 2017 U.S. wheat carryover to a still formidable 1.129 billion bushels while raising its forecasts for 2016-17 world wheat production, use, exports and ending stocks to new records.

The USDA made only minor changes to U.S. wheat supply and demand for 2016-17, a 10-million-bushel reduction to its wheat import forecast, which, in turn, resulted in a 10-million-bushel reduction to the department’s forecast for the 2017 wheat carryover. While the all-wheat outlook was little changed from February, there were several adjustments to supply-and-demand forecasts by class.

The USDA forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2017, at 1.129 billion bus, down 10 million bushels from the February projection but up 153 million bushels, or 16%, from 976 million bushels in 2016. The 2017 carryover still was forecast to be the largest since 1.261 billion bushels in 1988.

The USDA’s estimate of the 2016 wheat crop was unchanged at 2.310 billion bushels. U.S. wheat imports in 2016-17 were forecast at 115 million bushels, down 10 million from February but up 2 million bushels from 2015-16. The all-wheat supply in 2016-17 was forecast at 3.400 billion bushels, down 10 million from February but up 473 million bushels, or 16%, from 2.927 billion bushels in 2015-16.

All-wheat use forecasts for 2016-17 were unchanged from February. Food use of wheat was forecast at a record 960 million bushels, up 3 million from 2015-16. Seed use of wheat was forecast at 61 million bushels, down 6 million bushels from 2015-16 and compared with 79 million bushels in 2014-15. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2016-17 was forecast at 225 million bushels, up 73 million bushels from the previous year. Wheat exports in 2016-17 were forecast at 1.025 billion bushels, up 250 million bushels, or 32%, from 775 million bushels in 2015-16. The 2015-16 wheat outgo was the smallest since 610 million bushels in 1971-72, the year before the Soviet-U.S. wheat deal.

The USDA forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2016-17 at $3.80@3.90 a bushel, unchanged from February but down from $4.89 in 2015-16 and $5.99 in 2014-15.

The USDA’s carryover forecasts for 2017 by class were 566 million bushels for hard red winter, down 1 million from February but up 120 million bushels from 2016; 189 million bushels for hard red spring wheat, down 8 million from February and down 83 million bushels from 2016; 221 million bushels for soft red winter, down 5 million from February but up 64 million from 2016; 101 million bushels for white wheat, up 4 million from February and up 27 million bushels from 2016, and 52 million bushels for durum, unchanged from February but up 24 million from 2016.

The USDA forecast 2016-17 world wheat ending stocks at a record 249.94 million tonnes, up 1.33 million tonnes from the February outlook and up 9.65 million tonnes from 240.29 million tonnes, the current record. The USDA estimated world wheat production in 2016-17 at a record 751.07 million tonnes, up 2.83 million tonnes from February because of higher estimates for Australia and Argentina. The Australian crop was estimated at a record 35 million tonnes, up 2 million from the February projection. The Argentine crop estimate was raised 1 million tonnes, to 16 million.

The USDA forecast world wheat use in 2016-17 at a record 741.42 million tonnes, up 1.02 million tonnes from February and up 28.94 million tonnes from 712.48 million tonnes in 2015-16, the current record. World wheat exports in 2016-17 were forecast at a record 181.02 million tonnes, up 2.03 million tonnes from February and up 8.23 million tonnes from 172.79 million tonnes in 2015-16, the current record.


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