USDA reduced estimates for Black Sea grain production

13.06.2018

In the June forecast, USDA downwardly revised its estimates for grain production in the Black Sea region, but this does not yet include all expected commodities, reports UkrAgroConsult.

Firstly, the USDA experts left unchanged their forecasts for Ukraine: they still predict quite a heavy crop of wheat and a record crop of corn here in 2018. In view of droughty weather dominating most of the country, UkrAgroConsult’s analysts believe these crop levels are unlikely to be achieved.

With regard to Ukraine, the changes only concerned barley. USDA slashed its barley production and export forecasts for the 2018/19 season by 500 KMT each. In addition, the experts downwardly revised their barley and corn export estimates for the current 2017/18 season (by 400 KMT and 500 KMT, respectively).

The June forecast updates concerned mainly Russia. The corn market figures underwent the most significant changes, because the May USDA forecast for the country was unjustifiably overstated both in respect of production and exports. The USDA experts lowered their corn production forecast for Russia by 4 MMT, mostly due to a drop in the harvest area (down 700 Th ha). However, noteworthy is that USDA still keeps its estimate for Russian corn yield at a record level, which also looks unfeasible because of adverse weather conditions in Russia’s corn growing regions.

The estimate for 2018/19 corn exports from Russia was slashed by 2 MMT, to 5.5 MMT.

Drastic changes concerned Russian wheat too. In the June USDA report the forecast for its 2018/19 production is cut by 3.5 MMT, mostly because of a decrease in plantings (-1 Ml ha). The export estimate was reduced by 1.5 MMT.

At the same time, USDA raised the estimate for Russian wheat exports in the current 2017/18 season by another 1 MMT.

 

 

Country

WHEAT

CORN

BARLEY

Production

Export

Production

Export

Production

Export

18/19

17/18

18/19

17/18

18/19

17/18

18/19

17/18

18/19

17/18

18/19

17/18

Ukraine

26.5

27.0

17.0

 17.2

30.0

24.1

24.0

19.5Описание: Описание: arrow2

7.0Описание: Описание: arrow2

8.7

3.5Описание: Описание: arrow2

4.5Описание: Описание: arrow2

Russia

68.5Описание: Описание: arrow2

85.0

35.0Описание: Описание: arrow2

40.5 Описание: Описание: arrow1

15.0Описание: Описание: arrow2

13.2

5.5Описание: Описание: arrow2

4.8

18.5

20.2

5.5

5.4

Kazakhstan

14.0

14.8

8.0

8.5

0.75

0.79

0.05

0.05

3.5

3.3

1.3

1.25Описание: Описание: arrow1

More detailed information on the latest trends in grain exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop as well as crop conditions and progress in planting in the countries of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers for weekly market report "Black Sea Grain" and “Online market review” by UkrAgroConsult.

 

 

UkrAgroConsult

 

 

 

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